Proof
How a forecast gets graded
This page is the method, not a record. NUVARD does not publish a track record of its own forecasts, and this page does not imply one exists. What it shows is how a forecast is written, how it is graded against what actually happened, and what has to be true before NUVARD will put a number on anything at all.
The rule
A forecast is written before it can be checked
Every forecast is recorded with the change it expects and the window it expects it in, before that window opens. The order is the whole argument. A prediction assembled after the result, or quietly reworded once the result is in, cannot be graded by anyone, including us. A forecast that is never checked is an opinion with a confident voice.
The grades
Held, still open, missed
When the window closes the forecast is adjudicated, and there are only three answers. Held: the expected change appeared inside the forecast window. Still open: there is not enough history yet to separate a pattern from noise, so nothing is graded and the forecast waits. Missed: the expected change did not appear, and the model records the miss and updates. Misses are counted the same way holds are, because a model that hides them cannot be corrected by you.
Earned, not guessed
Confidence is a claim about evidence
NUVARD states confidence in words: early signal, emerging pattern, strong evidence. A percentage would invite you to read a precision that is not there. Underneath the words, every variable NUVARD models carries one of five stated evidence tiers, running from a direct blood draw to a self-reported check-in, and that tier travels with the number wherever the number goes. That is what earned means here. Guessed would be the same confident sentence with nothing underneath it.
The unaged
Nothing is aged before its inputs exist
NUVARD carries a roster of ten organ ages, and nine of them carry an age today. The tenth, respiratory, is on the roster and still calibrating, so it shows no number. A tenth figure would cost nothing to produce and would be the easiest thing on this page to invent. A system stays unaged until the inputs it is built from exist, and it says so on its own screen rather than averaging its way to something plausible.
The limit
What this page does not show
There is no accuracy figure here, no hit rate, no sample size, no customer story and no example record. NUVARD has not published a forecast record, and nothing on this page should be read as one. The only forecast ledger that exists today is the one inside your own app, built from your own forecasts, with your own misses left in it. NUVARD provides wellness intelligence. It does not diagnose or replace medical care. If a public record is ever published, it will be published here, and this page will say when that changed.
Launching 21 August
Be there on day one
NUVARD releases in full on the app stores on 21 August 2026. Everyone gets the same access on the same day. Join the list and verify your email, and the download link reaches you first.